We document a new fact: in U.S., European and Japanese surveys, households do not expect deflation, even in environments where persistent deflation is a strong possibility. This fact stands in contrast to the standard macroeconomic models with rational expectations. We extend a New Keynesian...

A mixed-frequency semi-structural model is used for estimating unobservable quantities such as the output gap, the Phillips curve and the NAIRU in real time. We consider two specifications: in one the output gap is observed as the official CBO measure, in the other is unobserved and derived via...

Online BOFIT seminars are open to all researchers interested in the subjects covered.

Program: - "Countercyclical Congestion"; - "The Real Wages of Newly Hired Workers over the Business Cycle: When the Difference between Worker Flows from Unemployment and Out-of-Labor Force Matters"; - "The Dynamics of Job Search in Unemployment"; - "Minimum Wages in Concentrated Labor...

We will consider applications related to all aspects of macroeconomic forecasting. Topics include, but are not limited to: - Data uncertainty and forecast communication - Nowcasting/monitoring of current economic conditions - Conditional forecasts, scenario analysis, forecasting risk -...

The aim of this workshop is to bring together senior and junior researchers to present and discuss original research examining the link between health and the labor market. Topics: - Health and labor market outcomes - Determinants of sickness absence - Health insurance and the labor market -...

Judgement and expert knowledge is widely thought to be important in the successful practice of forecasting. For policymakers, forecasts also embody judgements about the state of the economy, the transmission of shocks and optimal policy responses which necessitate the use of structural models....