The macroeconomic impacts of the quantitative easing programs enacted by the major central banks worldwide have been examined in many scientific articles. An increasing number of papers have additionally explored the spillover effects of the US and – to a lesser degree EA and UK - QE programs...

We document a new fact: in U.S., European and Japanese surveys, households do not expect deflation, even in environments where persistent deflation is a strong possibility. This fact stands in contrast to the standard macroeconomic models with rational expectations. We extend a New Keynesian...

"We study optimal monetary policy during times of exceptionally high global demand for tradable goods, relative to non-tradable services. The optimal monetary response entails a rise in inflation, which helps rebalance production toward the tradable sector. While the inflation costs are fully...

Co-author: Luhang Wang (Xiamen University) . In China, the relative wages of high-skilled and low-skilled workers display huge variation across different regions. We examine whether financial intermediation development can explain such variation. Conceptually, better-developed financial...

Co-authors: Yiping Huang (Peking University), Han Qiu (Bank for International Settlements) and Changhua Yu (Peking University) Through the lens of a unique dataset covering the full borrowing history of sampled firms from both BigTech and traditional bank lenders in China, we compare the...

Co-authors: David Newton (University of Bath), Steven Ongena (University of Zurich) and Ru Xie (University of Bath) Is bank- versus market-based financing different in its attitudes towards Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) risk? Using a novel sample covering 3,783 U.S. public firms...

Co-authors: Mikhail Mamonov (MGIMO-University and CERGE-EI), Steven Ongena (University of Zurich), Svetlana Popova (The Central Bank of Russia) and Natalia Turdyeva (The Central Bank of Russia). In 2013, the Central Bank of Russia started revoking licenses from fraudulent banks. By 2020,...

A mixed-frequency semi-structural model is used for estimating unobservable quantities such as the output gap, the Phillips curve and the NAIRU in real time. We consider two specifications: in one the output gap is observed as the official CBO measure, in the other is unobserved and derived via...

Co-authors: Domenico Giannone (Amazon.com) and Anna Kovner (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) We study the relationship between bank capital ratios and the distribution of future real GDP growth. Growth in the aggregate bank capital ratio corresponds to a smaller left tail of GDP—smaller...

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