Das neue KOF Konjunkturbarometer – Version 2014

This paper presents a new composite leading indicator for the Swiss business cycle corresponding to the growth cycle concept. It is the result of another complete overhaul of the KOF Economic Barometer that has been published by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute on a monthly basis since 1976. In line with its tradition, the calculation of the new KOF Economic Barometer comprises two main stages. The first consists of the variable selection procedure; and in the second stage these variables are subsequently transformed into one leading indicator. Whereas in the previous versions of the KOF Economic Barometer six to 25 variables survived the first stage, the new – less discretionary and more automated – version selects hundreds of variables into the second stage. The increased number of variables underlying the second stage allows a relatively stable and robust KOF Economic Barometer that hence no longer has to rely on filtering techniques to reduce the noise in the final indicator.