Pressure or prudence? : tales of market pressure and fiscal adjustment

Salvatore Dell’Erba, Todd Mattina and Agustin Roitman

We study whether multiyear fiscal adjustment plans in 17 OECD countries during 1980-2011 have been associated with market pressure. We find that only a third (34 percent) of the consolidations occurred under market pressure, suggesting that market pressure is important but not the main element associated with consolidation plans. Many adjustments under market pressure were also clustered around external shocks, and entailed larger median fiscal adjustments than other multiyear consolidations. In contrast, we find that virtually all multiyear consolidations aimed at reducing budget deficits occ

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Year of publication:	2013
Authors:	Dell'Erba, Salvatore ; Mattina, Todd ; Roitman, Agustin
Publisher:	Washington, DC : IMF
Subject:	Haushaltskonsolidierung \| Fiscal consolidation \| OECD-Staaten \| OECD countries \| 1980-2011

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Extent:	Online-Ressource (39 S.) graph. Darst.
Series:	IMF working papers. - Washington, DC : IMF, ZDB-ID 2108494-4. - Vol. 13/170
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Arbeitspapier ; Working Paper ; Graue Literatur ; Non-commercial literature
Language:	English
Notes:	Includes bibliographical references Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Literature Review; Boxes; 1. Fiscal Plans versus Fiscal Outcomes: Identification and Measurement of Fiscal Policy; III. A Simple Model of Market Pressure and Fiscal Adjustment; A. Government's Problem; B. Implications of Default Risk; IV. Identification of Fiscal Adjustment and Measurement of Market Pressure; A. Identification of Fiscal Adjustments; B. Identification and Measurement of Market Pressure; 2. Measuring Market Pressure; V. Fiscal Adjustments under Pressure: The Big Picture; Figures 1. Market Pressure Indicators and Fiscal Consolidation Episodes, 1980-20112. Multi year Fiscal Consolidation Episodes and Market Pressure; 3. Multi year Fiscal Consolidation Episodes and External Shocks; 4. Median Cumulative Fiscal Adjustment Based on Different Identification Approaches of Multi year Consolidations; VI. Regression Analysis; 5. Fiscal Consolidation Episodes and Fiscal Fundamentals; A. Baseline Results; B. Robustness Checks; VII. Policy Implications; VIII. Conclusion; References; Appendixes; I. Identification of Fiscal Consolidation Episodes; Appendix Tables 1. Planned Multiyear Consolidation Episodes Based on the Narrative Approach, 1980-20112. Large Multiyear Consolidation Episodes Based on the "CAPB" Approach, 1980-2011; II. Regression Analysis; 3. Summary Statistics; 4. Regression Results of a Conditional Logit Panel Regression Model; 5. Different Indicators of Market Pressure; 6. Different Identification of Market Pressure Episodes; 7. Interaction of Market Pressure Indic ators and Debt to GDP; 8. Splitting the Sample; 9. Determinants of a Consolidation Spell; III. Extension of Devries et al. (2011) 10. Extending the Action-Based Dataset on Discretionary Fiscal Consolidations, 2010-11Data Appendix Electronic reproduction; Available via World Wide Web
ISBN:	978-1-4843-7405-4
Other identifiers:	10.5089/9781484374054.001 [DOI]
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

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