The Post-Enlargement Migration Experiencein the Baltic Labor Markets

We use Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian LFS data (2002-2007) complemented with severalother surveys to compare the profile of Baltic temporary workers abroad before and after EUaccession with that of stayers and return migrants. Determinants of migration and return, aswell as selection issues are discussed. Post-enlargement migrants from all three countrieswere significantly less educated than stayers. After accession, medium-educated workerswere most likely to move, other things equal, and human capital became increasingly lesspro-migration over time. Return migrants differ from all movers in many ways and, inparticular, are more educated. Although brain drain was not a feature of post-accession Balticmigration, brain waste was: during 2006-2007, the proportion of overqualified among higheducatedmovers ranged from five out of ten for Latvia to seven out of ten for Lithuania, but itwas around one fifth among high-educated stayers in all three countries. We find that the freemovement of labor partially introduced in 2004 (and expanded in 2006) for EU citizens,although excluding Baltic non-citizens, brought about significant changes in how ethnicity andcitizenship affect workers’ mobility. We conclude by discussing migration perspectives in thecontext of recession....