Ball, Laurence; Jalles, João Tovar; Loungani, Prakash - In: International Journal of Forecasting 31 (2015) 1, pp. 176-184
This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from...