Fritsche, Ulrich; Döpke, Jörg - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2005
The paper analyses the reasons for departures from strong rationality of German business cycle forecasts based on annual observations from 1963 to 2004. We rely on forecasts from the joint forecast of the so-called "six leading" forecasting institutions in Germany. We test for a non-linear...