González, Andrés; Hubrich, Kirstin; Teräsvirta, Timo - School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus - 2009
model.
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Keywords: Nonlinear forecast; nonlinear model; nonlinear trend;
penalised likelihood; structural shift; time … time. The shift in preferences towards high price stability, re�ected in
the downward trend of euro area in�ation during … which
the in�ation process is assumed to contain two components: a deterministi-
cally time-varying mean and an …