Erten, Bilge; Ocampo, José Antonio - In: World Development 44 (2013) C, pp. 14-30
Decomposition of real commodity prices suggests four super cycles during 1865–2010 ranging between 30 and 40years with amplitudes 20–40% higher or lower than the long-run trend. Non-oil price super-cycles follow world GDP, indicating they are essentially demand-determined; causality runs in...