Evgenidis, Anastasios; Siriopoulos, Costas - In: Applied Economics Letters 21 (2014) 12, pp. 817-822
We review spread's predictive ability by implementing a number of linear and probit models. We conduct a comparative analysis of the forecasting performance of various specifications by focusing on the last three major US economic slowdowns: 1990, 2001 and 2007. The results indicate that...