D'Agostino, Antonello; Domenico, Giannone; Surico, Paolo - Central Bank of Ireland - 2006
This paper documents a new stylized fact of the greater macroeconomic stability of the U.S. economy over the last two … decades. Using 131 monthly time series, three popular statistical methods and the forecasts of the Federal Reserve's Greenbook … and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we show that the ability to predict several measures of inflation and real …