This paper analyzes whether commodity futures prices traded in the United States reveal information relevant to stock prices of East Asian economies including China, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan. We find significant and positive predictive powers of overnight futures returns of...

This paper investigates a selection of methods disentangling contributions from price jumps to realized variance. Flat prices (consecutively sampled prices in calendar time with the same value) and no trading (no price observation at sampling points), both frequently occurring stylized facts in...

We elaborate economic explanations for the time-varying risk of month, quarter and year base load electricity forward contracts traded on the Nord Pool Energy Exchange from January 2006 to March 2010. Daily risk quantities are generated by decomposing realized volatility in its continuous and...

The behavioral finance literature cites the frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) futures market as a prominent example of the failure of prices to reflect fundamentals. This paper reexamines the relation between FCOJ futures returns and fundamentals, focusing primarily on temperature. We show...

The last decade brought substantial increased participation in commodity markets by index funds that maintain long positions in the near futures contracts. Policy makers and academic studies have reached sharply different conclusions about the effects of these funds on commodity futures prices....

This paper analyzes a novel data set of commodity futures prices over a long sample period starting in 1877, which allows us to shed new light on several important and controversial questions. We document that commodity futures returns (1) have been positive on average; (2) vary significantly...