This paper examines the ability of balanced pension plan managers to successfully time the equity and bond market and select the appropriate assets within these markets. In order to evaluate both market timing abilities in these balanced pension plans, we extend the traditional equity market...

Using estimated CAPM-models portfolio risks of Russian mutual funds are analyzed. Two questions are considered: how did mutual funds portfolio risks change during the crisis and postcrisis periods; did portfolio managers successfully fit the portfolio structure depending on market conditions?...

Valuation-based market timing demonstrates greater potential to improve risk-adjusted returns for conservative long-term investors than given credit by Fisher and Statman (2006). On a risk-adjusted basis, market-timing strategies provide comparable returns as a 100 percent stocks buy-and-hold...

In this paper the authors survey financial structure theories, from the start-up point, which is considered Modigliani and Miller’s capital structure irrelevance theorem, to recent theories, such as the pecking order and the market timing theory. For each type of model, a brief overview of the...

This paper is an empirical assessment of the performance of mutual fund managers in terms of “market timing” and “selectivity”, within the framework suggested by Treynor and Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson and Merton (1981). The relevant data set is a balanced panel of fifty five mutual...

Using a 57-year global panel of listings on foreign stock exchanges, we identify waves in foreign listing activity at the host market, home market, and industry levels. We observe that the waves in the host market are often due to cross-listing waves in home markets or industries that share a...

We decompose the conditional expected mutual fund return in five parts. Two parts, selectivity and expert market timing, can be attributed to manager skill, and three to variation in market exposure that can be achieved by private investors as well. The dynamic model that we use to estimate the...

In this paper, we analyze the economic value of predicting stock index returns as well as volatility. On the basis of simple linear models, estimated recursively, we produce genuine out-of-sample forecasts for the return on the S&P 500 index and its volatility. Using monthly data from 1954 to...