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Measures of the output gap in the Euro-zone : an empirical assessment of selected methods

Chagny, Odile; Döpke, Jörg - 2001

die Euro-Zone. Obwohl die Methoden einige wichtige gemeinsame Eigenschaften aufweisen, zeigen sie auch erhebliche … methods commonly used have only limited information content for inflation forecasting in the euro-zone. Conclusions for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473858

Financial openness and business cycle volatility

Buch, Claudia M.; Döpke, Jörg; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2002

This paper discusses whether the integration of international financial markets affects business cycle fluctuations. In the framework of a new open economy macro-model, we show that the link between financial openness and business cycle volatility depends on the nature of the underlying shock....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011475038

Business cycle volatility in Germany

Buch, Claudia M.; Döpke, Jörg; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2002

Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and the nature of this decline have so far been analyzed mainly for the United States. In this paper, we analyze whether structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011475861

Inflation and the skewness of the distribution of relative price changes : empirical evidence for Germany

Döpke, Jörg; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2001

The present paper uses German annual data covering the period 1969-2000 to present evidence on the link between aggregate inflation and the higher-order moments of the distribution of relative price changes. Our empirical findings confirm predictions of contributions to the theoretical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476471

Macroeconomic forecasts and the nature of economic shocks in Germany

Döpke, Jörg - 2000

The paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic forecast errors in Germany. The predictions of the so-called "six leading" research institutes are analyzed. The forecast errors are discussed within an aggregate demand/supply scheme. Structural Vector Autoregressive Models are estimated to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476550

Measures of the output gap in the Euro-zone : an empirical assessment of selected methods

Chagny, Odile; Döpke, Jörg - In: Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 70 (2001) 4, pp. 310-330

The paper discusses some widely used methods for estimating output gaps based on aggregated datafor the Euro … methods commonly used have only limited information content for inflation forecasting in the Euro-zone. Conclusions for … die Euro-Zone. Obwohl die Methoden einige wichtige gemeinsame Eigenschaften aufweisen, zeigen auch sie erhebliche …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010493796

Are there business cycles "beyond GDP"? : alternative measures to GDP at business cycle frequencies

Döpke, Jörg; Maschke, Philip - In: Applied economics quarterly 61 (2015) 2, pp. 115-139

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444707

Predicting recessions in Germany with boosted regression trees

Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2015 - First version: October 2015

We use a machine-learning approach known as Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) to reexamine the usefulness of selected leading indicators for predicting recessions. We estimate the BRT approach on German data and study the relative importance of the indicators and their marginal effects on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011381289

How robust is the empirical link between business-cycle volatility and long-run growth in OECD countries?

Döpke, Jörg - In: International review of applied economics 18 (2004) 1, pp. 103-121

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001908462

The effects of business cycles on growth : time series evidence for the G7-countries using survey-based measures of the business cycle

Döpke, Jörg - In: CESifo economic studies : CESifo, a joint initiative of … 50 (2004) 2, pp. 333-349

The paper analyses whether business cycle fluctuations affect long-run growth. This hypothesis is tested using quarterly time series for the G7-countries. A vector-autoregressive model containing total factor productivity and a survey-based direct measure of the business cycle is estimated. In...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002094014