Should an investor enter into long-term positions in oil futures contracts? In answering this question, this paper will cover the following three considerations: (1) the case for structural positions in crude oil futures contracts; (2) useful indicators for avoiding crash risk; and (3) financial...

This paper will argue that one can intelligently invest in the commodity markets and will briefly touch on three approaches, which in turn are drawn from “Intelligent Commodity Investing” (Risk Books, 2007). The first two sections of this paper will discuss two historically profitable...

Broadly speaking, there are seven strands of literature on commodity pricing theory, which we summarize as follows: The insurance role of commodity futures contracts, which emphasizes the role of the speculator; the theory of storage, which emphasizes the behavior of the inventory holder and...

This paper will argue that long-only investments in the commodity futures markets, specifically those represented by the GSCI, are only advisable under a well-defined circumstance. One needs to use a reliable indicator of scarcity before investing in commodities in order to improve the chances...

In this paper, we introduce readers to commodity (natural resource) futures programs. We begin by describing the present investment landscape as one where return compression in a number of popular hedge fund strategies has led absolute-return investors to investigate other promising return...

The paper discusses the practical issues involved in applying a disciplined risk management methodology to futures trading. Specifically, the paper shows how to apply methodologies derived from both conventional asset management and hedge fund management to futures trading as well as discussing...

This paper provides some preliminary contributions to the debate over the sources of return in the commodity markets, based on work that is drawn from the 2007 Risk Book, Intelligent Commodity Investing. Essentially, Till (2007) and Feldman and Till (2006) find that in examining a 55-year period...