Human behaviour on the Internet has become a synchro-projection of real society. In this paper, we introduce the public concern derived from query volumes on the Web to empirically analyse the influence of information on commodity markets (e.g., crude oil, heating oil, corn and gold) using...

The influence of price volatility in the crude oil market is expanding to non-energy commodity markets. With the substitution of fossil fuels by bio-fuel and hedge strategies against inflation induced by high oil prices, the link between crude oil market and agriculture markets and metal markets...

We construct a set of HAR models with three types of infinite Hidden Markov regime switching structures. Particularly, jumps, leverage effects, and speculation effects are taken into account in realized volatility modeling. We forecast five agricultural commodity futures (Corn, Cotton, Indica...