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The credit composition of global liquidity

Herwartz, Helmut; Ochsner, Christian; Rohloff, Hannes - 2020

We conceptualize global liquidity as global monetary policy and credit components by means of a large-scale dynamic factor model in the spirit of Eickmeier,Gambacorta, and Hofmann (2014). Going beyond previous work, we decompose aggregate credit components into credit supply and demand flows...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012318308

Long-run links among money, prices, and output : world-wide evidence

Herwartz, Helmut; Reimers, Hans-Eggert - 2001

Regarding inflation as being a monetary phenomenon in the long-run is a widely-held view in modern macro economics. We analyse this topic by means of a P-star model. Based on the quantity theory of money, this approach explains inflation via a supposed equilibrium price level (P-star), which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011419407

Monetary policy shocks, set-identifying restrictions, and asset prices : a benchmarking approach for analyzing set-identified models

Uhrin, Gábor B.; Herwartz, Helmut - 2016 - This version: November 17, 2016

A central question for monetary policy is how asset prices respond to a monetary policy shock. We provide evidence on this issue by augmenting a monetary SVAR for US data with an asset price index, using set-identifying structural restrictions. The impulse responses show a positive asset price...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011563120

Less bang for the buck? : assessing the role of inflation uncertainty for U.S. monetary policy transmission in a data rich environment

Herwartz, Helmut; Rohloff, Hannes - 2018

We investigate the relationship between inflation uncertainty and monetary policy transmission in the U.S. economy. Monetary policy shocks are identified within the framework of nonlinear structural factor-augmented VARs which allow us to analyze several complementary hypotheses connecting IU...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011931106

U-MIDAS: MIDAS regressions with unrestricted lag polynomials

Foroni, Claudia; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Schumacher, … - 2011

unrestricted polynomials. In an empirical application on out-of-sample nowcasting GDP in the US and the Euro area using monthly …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009490826

State dependence in the finance-growth nexus : a functional coefficient approach

Herwartz, Helmut; Yabibal Mulualem Walle - 2013

Noting that "one size does not fit all" in the case of the finance-growth (FG) nexus, a growing body of literature has recently focused on uncovering economic conditions under which financial development could be beneficial (detrimental) to economic development. We look into these conditions by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009752169

Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities

Scharnagl, Michael (contributor); … - 2007

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a … estimation of inclusion probabilities of a particular variable, that is the probability of that variable being in the forecast … empirical question whether the group of monetary variables is relevant for forecasting euro area inflation. In our application …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003461220

Forecasting German GDP using alternative factor models based on large datasets

Schumacher, Christian (contributor) - 2005

This paper discusses the forecasting performance of alternative factor models based on a large panel of quarterly time series for the german economy. One model extracts factors by static principals components analysis, the other is based on dynamic principal components obtained using frequency...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003029896

Real-time forecasting of GDP based on a large factor model with monthly and quarterly data

Schumacher, Christian (contributor); … - 2006

This paper discusses a factor model for estimating monthly GDP using a large number of monthly and quarterly time series in real-time. To take into account the different periodicities of the data and missing observations at the end of the sample, the factors are estimated by applying an EM...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003383602

Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data : a model comparison for German GDP

Marcellino, Massimiliano (contributor); … - 2007

combinations of factor estimation methods and Factor-MIDAS projections with respect to nowcast performance. Additionally, we …. Our empirical findings show that the factor estimation methods don't differ much with respect to nowcasting accuracy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003634929