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Measuring connectedness of Euro area sovereign risk

Gätjen, Rebekka; Schienle, Melanie - 2015

We introduce a methodology for measuring default risk connectedness that is based on an out-of-sample variance decomposition of model forecast errors. The out-of-sample nature of the procedure leads to "realized" measures which, in practice, respond more quickly to crisis occurrences than those...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010503874

Testing directional forecast value in the presence of serial correlation

Blaskowitz, Oliver; Herwartz, Helmut - 2008

Common approaches to test for the economic value of directional forecasts are based on the classical Chi-square test for independence, Fisher’s exact test or the Pesaran and Timmerman (1992) test for market timing. These tests are asymptotically valid for serially independent observations....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003796145

Beyond dimension two : a test for higher-order tail risk

Bormann, Carsten; Schienle, Melanie; Schaumburg, Julia - 2014

In practice, multivariate dependencies between extreme risks are often only assessed in a pairwise way. We propose a test to detect when tail dependence is truly high{dimensional and bivariate simplifications would produce misleading results. This occurs when a significant portion of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010402973

Capturing the zero : a new class of zero-augmented distributions and multiplicative error processes

Hautsch, Nikolaus; Malec, Peter; Schienle, Melanie - 2010

We propose a novel approach to model serially dependent positive-valued variables which realize a non-trivial proportion of zero outcomes. This is a typical phenomenon in financial time series observed on high frequencies, such as cumulated trading volumes or the time between potentially...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008749839

Nonparametric Kernel density estimation near the boundary

Malec, Peter; Schienle, Melanie - 2012 - This Version: August 13, 2012

methodology in practice. -- Kernel density estimation ; boundary correction ; asymmetric kernel …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009577035

Nonparametric estimation of risk-neutral densities

Grith, Maria; Härdle, Wolfgang; Schienle, Melanie - 2010

This chapter deals with nonparametric estimation of the risk neutral density. We present three different approaches … conditional on the physical measure of the underlying asset. Via direct series type estimation of the pricing kernel we can derive …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003953034

Exchange rate uncertainty and trade growth : a comparison of linear and nonlinear (forecasting) models

Herwartz, Helmut (contributor); Weber, Henning (contributor) - 2007

A huge body of empirical and theoretical literature has emerged on the relationship between foreign exchange (FX) uncertainty and international trade. Empirical findings about the impact of FX uncertainty on trade figures are at best weak and often ambiguous with respect to its direction. Almost...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003634011

Modeling the FIBOR/EURIBOR swap term structure : an empirical approach

Blaskowitz, Oliver (contributor); … - 2005

In this study we forecast the term structure of FIBOR/EURIBOR swap rates by means of recursive vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In advance, a principal components analysis (PCA) is adopted to reduce the dimensionality of the term structure. To evaluate ex-ante forecasting performance for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003049489

On economic evaluation of directional forecasts

Blaskowitz, Oliver; Herwartz, Helmut - 2009

It is commonly accepted that information is helpful if it can be exploited to improve a decision making process. In economics, decisions are often based on forecasts of up- or downward movements of the variable of interest. We point out that directional forecasts can provide a useful framework...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003893151

When, how fast and by how much do trade? : costs change in the Euro area?

Herwartz, Helmut (contributor); Weber, Henning (contributor) - 2008

Microfoundations of the euro's effect on euro area trade hinge on the timing, the speed and the size of adjustment in … at the sector level. We find that, due to falling trade costs, trade within the euro area increases between the years … 2000 and 2003 by 10 to 20 percent compared with trade between European countries that are not members of the euro area …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003770823