predictions of the model change very little, but the welfare costs of unemployment are much larger because unemployment risk is … distributed unequally across workers. As a result, optimal unemployment insurance may be higher and welfare is lower if hiring is …

unemployment and output fluctuations. The central question is whether the rule based component (i.e., the existence of the … our baseline scenario the rule based component stabilizes unemployment fluctuations by 15% and output fluctuations by 7 … significant effect on unemployment. These effects are based on a structural VAR estimation which is identified using the output …

Standard macroeconomic models underpredict the volatility of unemployment fluctuations. A common solution is to assume … jobs. This form of wage rigidity does not affect job creation and thus cannot explain the unemployment volatility puzzle …