study the effects of fiscal stimulus. Our small-open-economy empirical setting permits us to estimate key macroeconomic …

A key issue in current research and policy is the size of fiscal multipliers when the economy is in recession. We …

order to stabilize the real economy. A modified Taylor curve, the forecast Taylor curve, showing the tradeoff between the … achieved an efficient stabilization of both inflation and the real economy and what relative weight on the stability of … inflation and the real economy has effectively been applied. Ex ante evaluation may be more relevant than evaluation ex post …

that 1) while the Fed likely satisfied the Taylor principle in the pre-Volcker era, the US economy was still subject to … self-fulfilling fluctuations in the 1970s, 2) the US economy moved from indeterminacy to determinacy during the Volcker …

The Fed kept interest rates low and essentially unchanged during the late 1990s despite a booming economy and record … evident that the productive capacity of the economy increased. Yet as events unfolded, there was uncertainty about the … expansion of the capacity of the economy and therefore about the sustainability of the Fed's policy. This paper provides an …

borrowing, especially during periods of economic weakness. Indeed, fiscal stimulus in a weak economy can improve fiscal …

the state of the economy and uses real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. For …