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Forward guidance about future policy settings, in the form of a published policy-rate path, has for many years been a natural part of normal monetary policy for several central banks, including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Swedish Riksbank. More recently, the Federal Reserve has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039629
How would the policy rule of forecast targeting work for the Federal Reserve? To what extent is the Federal Reserve already practicing forecast targeting? Forecast targeting means selecting a policy rate and policy-rate path so that the forecasts of inflation and employment “look good,” in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012943621
of a weaker economy with higher unemployment and lower inflation and possible benefits from a lower probability or … magnitude of a (financial) crisis. A first obvious cost is a weaker economy if no crisis occurs. A second cost—less obvious, but … higher—is a weaker economy if a crisis occurs. Taking the second cost into account, Svensson (2017) shows that for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948449
monetary policy for financial-stability purposes, is presented. LAW has obvious costs in the form of a weaker economy if no … cost—less obvious, overlooked by previous literature, but higher—is a weaker economy if a crisis occurs. For representative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013000534
The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden 1992-1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time- path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783966
We examine a central bank's endogenous choice of degree of control and degree of transparency, under both commitment and discretion. Under commitment, we find that the deliberate choice of sloppy control is far less likely under a standard central-bank loss function than reported for a less...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014157375
Inflation targeting is shown to imply inflation forecast targeting: the central bank's inflation forecast becomes an explicit intermediate target. Inflation forecast targeting simplifies both implementation and monitoring of monetary policy. The weight on output stabilization determines how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125561
opposition to the Federal Reserve's easing, and those for the Riksbank's tightening. Although the Swedish economy subsequently … better. The U.S. economy meanwhile performed worse than expected because of factors other than monetary policy. Without the … summer of 2010, and subsequent adverse economic shocks contributed to weak performance of the U.S. economy. In contrast, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110938
Policy rules that are consistent with inflation targeting are examined in a small macroeconomic model of the US economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324002
We define and study transparency, credibility, and reputation in a model where the central bank's characteristics are unobservable to the private sector and are inferred from the policy outcome. A low-credibility bank optimally conducts a more inflationary policy than a high-credibility bank, in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137302