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Modern forecasting models in action : improving macroeconomic analyses at central banks

Adolfson, Malin; Andersson, Michael K.; Lindé, Jesper; … - 2006 - Revised version

There are many indications that formal methods are not used to their full potential by central banks today. In this paper we demonstrate how BVAR and DSGE models can be used to shed light on questions that policy makers deal with in practice using data from Sweden. We compare the forecast...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011585648

Evaluating monetary policy

Svensson, Lars E. O. - 2009

order to stabilize the real economy. A modified Taylor curve, the forecast Taylor curve, showing the tradeoff between the … achieved an efficient stabilization of both inflation and the real economy and what relative weight on the stability of … inflation and the real economy has effectively been applied. Ex ante evaluation may be more relevant than evaluation ex post …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003896109

Density-conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models

Andersson, Michael K.; Palmqvist, Stefan Ulf; Waggoner, … - 2010

When generating conditional forecasts in dynamic models it is common to impose the conditions as restrictions on future structural shocks. However, these conditional forecasts often ignore that there may be uncertainty about the future development of the restricted variables. Our paper therefore...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009792830

Optimal monetary policy in an operational medium-sized DSGE model

Adolfson, Malin; Laséen, Stefan; Lindé, Jesper; … - 2008

We show how to construct optimal policy projections in Ramses, the Riksbank’s openeconomy medium-sized DSGE model for forecasting and policy analysis. Bayesian estimation of the parameters of the model indicates that they are relatively invariant to alternative policy assumptions and supports...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003757018