Several methods have been proposed in the last few years for evaluating uncertainty in forecasts produced by nonlinear econometric models. Some methods resort to Monte Carlo, while others resort to different simulation techniques. This work aims at comparing these methods by means of experiments...

For a nonlinear system of simultaneous equations, the mode of the joint distribution of the endogenous variables in the forecast period is proposed as alternative to the more usual deterministic or mean predictors. A first method follows from maximizing the joint density of a subset of the...

This paper describes the application of a reordering algorithm to the equations of econometric models. The algorithm was proposed in 1970 by Van der Giessen and is here applied to the equation format required by the program for stochastic simulation developed at the IBM Scientific Center in Pisa.

This paper shows how to compute asymptotic standard errors of the characteristic roots of a nonlinear econometric model. The system of simultaneous equations is linearized in the neighborhood of a given point, then characteristic roots and related standard errors are computed.

Do extreme weather events such as droughts or floods lead to migration away from the areas affected by these events? This chapter aims to provide an answer to that question for Morocco using a new nationally representative household survey implemented in 2009-10. The data suggest that around one...

This chapter is based on qualitative focus group and in-depth interview data collected among rural residents and urban migrants in the five focus countries for this study. The chapter documents the relationship between climate change and internal human mobility as seen by the population, as well...

Climate change is a major source of concern in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and migration is often understood as one of several strategies used by households to respond to changes in climate and environmental conditions, including extreme weather events. Other coping and...

This chapter uses matching techniques and a recent nationally representative household survey for Yemen combined with weather data to measure the impact of remittances, both domestic and international, on poverty and human development outcomes (school enrolment, immunization, and malnutrition)....

Concerns abound about the potential impact of climate change on future migration, especially in the Middle East and North Africa, one of the regions that is likely to suffer the most from climate change. Yet it is not clear whether so far climate patterns have been a key driver of internal...

There is evidence in the literature that migration and remittances tend to increase in response to climate shocks, so that both may function as coping mechanisms. It is not clear however whether remittances are likely to be higher in areas that suffer from poor climate in the absence of weather...