Global monetary conditions have often been cited as a driving factor of commodity prices. This paper investigates the empirical relationship between US monetary policy and commodity prices by means of a standard VAR system, commonly used in analysing the effects of monetary policy shocks. The...

Previous research has shown that the US business cycle leads the European cycle by a few quarters, and can therefore help predicting euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables provide additional predictive power. We use a VAR model of the US and the euro area GDPs and extend it to...

Bayesian approaches to the estimation of DSGE models are becoming increasingly popular. Prior knowledge is normally formalized either be information concerning deep parameters’ values (‘microprior’) or some macroeconomic indicator, e.g. moments of observable variables (‘macroprior’)....

In this paper, we assess whether and to what extent financial activity in the oil futures markets has contributed to destabilize oil prices in recent years. We define a destabilizing financial shock as a shift in oil prices that is not related to current and expected fundamentals, and thereby...

This brief reviews the main economic developments since transition in the three Baltic economies and highlights challenges for the future. Although the three economies went, in an almost synchronous fashion, through similar stages of catching up and financial convergence-driven booms and busts,...

This brief reviews the evolution of the US and the European labour markets since the beginning of the financial crisis. In the US, the unemployment rate and the share of long-term unemployment grew very fast, during the crisis, thereby reaching levels close to those in the EU. Does that mean...

There is a widespread perception that imbalances within the euro area are not adjusting, the major difficulty being that the competitive disinflation processes required in deficit countries are painful, while no strong incentives are always available in surplus countries to reduce their excess...

This Economic Brief recapitulates some main insights on the role of structural reform for adjustment and growth in the EU. Its aim is threefold. First, the Brief discusses recent reform efforts in EU countries. Second, it discusses possible effects from reforms in labour and product markets by...

The Brief investigates the role of policy uncertainty in explaining the persistently high unemployment rate in the euro area after the Great Recession and the different impact of uncertainty on flows into and out of unemployment.