The decomposition of a given time series into trend, seasonal component, and irregular component is formulated as a minimization problem. The trend is chosen such that it is as smooth as possible; the seasonal component is chosen such that it exhibits a seasonal pattern as stable as possible; and...

People tend, in many ways, to behave like the others they see around them. This note´shows that such reference group behavior tends to reinforce incentives (economic or other) that influence individuals directly only marginally. The workings or such incentives is augmented what might be called...

The aim of this paper is to develop a model-based seasonal adjustment method which will yield the same decomposition formulas as the descriptive seasonal adjustment procedures proposed in Schlicht/Pauly (1984) and Schlicht (1981). Hence the duality between the descriptive and the model-based...

These notes, published in 1981, introduce the concept of the social multiplier: If the behavior of agents is positively influenced by what members of their reference group do, this enhances the power of economic incentives.

The seasonal adjustment method proposed by Schlicht (1981) can be viewed as a method that minimizes non-stochastic deviations (perturbations). This interpretation gives rise to a critique of the seasonality criterion used there. A new seasonality criterion is proposed that avoids these...

The paper discusses a new seasonality hypothesis which is one part of a weighted regression approach for the decomposition of a time series into a trend, a seasonal component and an irregular component. It is shown that there exists a regression formulation leading, as in the descriptive...