The financialisation of commodity derivative markets, reflected in the increased presence of financial investors, and its effects on commodity prices and the fundamental roles of these markets, i.e. price discovery and price risk management for commercial traders, have been controversially...

Given the far-reaching implications of commodity prices for developing countries an understanding of the factors behind recent commodity price developments is crucial. ÖFSE research shows that besides structural changes in fundamental supply and demand conditions, the increasing presence of...

We analyze the relation between European natural gas storage facilities and price patterns at major trading points, considering the theory of storage to derive a testable hypothesis imposed by the non-arbitrage condition. To model the efficiency of the natural gas market, we apply two indirect...

The paper develops an oil price forecasting technique which is based on the present value model of rational commodity pricing. The approach suggests shifting the forecasting problem to the marginal convenience yield which can be derived from the cost-of-carry relationship. In a recursive...

Unter dauerhafter Entwicklung verstehen wir eine Entwicklung, die den Bedürfnissen der heutigen Generation entspricht, ohne die Möglichkeiten künftiger Generationen zu gefährden, ihre eigenen Bedürfnisse zu befriedigen und ihren Lebensstil zu wählen. Die Forderung, diese Entwicklung...

This paper analyses the importance of common factors in shaping non-fuel commodity price movements for the period 1957-2008. For this purpose, a dynamic factor model is estimated using Kalman Filtering techniques. Based on this set-up we are able to separate common and idiosyncratic developments...

In this paper we examine linkages across non-energy commodity price developments by means of a factor-augmented VAR model (FAVAR). From a set of non-energy commodity price series, we extract two factors, which we identify as common trends in metals and a food prices. These factors are included...

Since the study of Ellerman and Decaux (1998) marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) have become one of the favorite instruments to analyze the impacts of the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol and emission trading. This paper shows that the MACC in one country depends - via the link of world...

This paper examines the interactions between money, consumer prices and commodity prices at a global level from 1970 to 2008. Using aggregated data for major OECD countries and a cointegrating VAR framework, we are able to establish long run and short run relationships among these variables...

Does faster economic growth increase pressure for democratic change, or reduce it? Using data for 154 countries for the period 1963-2007, we examine the short-run relationship between economic growth and moves toward and away from greater democracy. To address the potential endogeneity of...