Even though commodity pricing models have been successful in fitting the term structure of futures prices and its dynamics, they do not generate accurate true distributions of spot prices. This paper develops a new approach to calibrate these models using not only observations of oil futures...

Several studies employ mapping algorithms to infer index positions in WTI crude oil futures from positions in agricultural futures and report an economically large and statistically significant impact of index positions on crude oil futures prices. In this article, we provide direct evidence...