The current financial crisis followed the “great moderation,” according to which the world’s central banks had gotten so good at countercyclical policy that the business cycle no longer existed. As more and more economists and media people became convinced that the risk of recessions had...

I develop a model for monetary policy analysis that features significant feedback from asset prices to macroeconomic quantities. The feedback is caused by credit market imperfections, which dynamically affect how efficiently labour and capital are being used in aggregate. I then analyse what...

We analyze if and to what extent fundamental macroeconomic factors, temporary influences or more structural factors have contributed to the low levels of US bond yields over the last few years. For that purpose, we start with a general model of interest rate determination. The empirical part...

Résumé: Une zone-cible du taux d’inflation comporte une borne supérieure et une borne inférieure clairement annoncées par les autorités monétaires. Ces dernières assurent la crédibilité de cette zone par des interventions ponctuelles sur les marchés financiers lorsque le taux...

In this study, we examine the relationship between the U.S. real price of oil and factors that affect its movement over time: futures prices, the value of the dollar, exploration, demand, and supply. All of these variables are treated as jointly endogenous and a reduced form vector error...

It has been recently argued that the flattening of the Phillips curve, observed in the main industrial countries over the last two decades, is due to globalisation, which exposes domestic firms to fiercer international competition and severs the link between domestic demand and pricing. A more...

The paper examines the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for nine Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in three-variable vector autoregressive and error correction models. When considering total exports, our results reject the ELG hypothesis in almost all of these countries. When we...

Two countries face a strategic interdependence in producing intermediate goods. Producing these intermediate goods requires both of domestic capital and another imported intermediate good. Individually they determine its balanced growth path by taking into account this interdependence. By...

This paper investigates the nature of the causal relationships among stock prices and effective exchange rates in four old EU member countries (Austria, France, Germany, and the UK), four new EU member countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia), and in the United States. Both the...

The Fisher effect postulated that real interest rate is constant, and that nominal interest rate and expected inflation move one-for-one together. This paper employs Johansen’s method to investigate for the existence of a long-run Fisher effect in the Singapore economy over the period 1976 to...