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At the onset of the COVID pandemic, the U.S. economy suddenly and swiftly lost 20 million jobs. Over the next two years, the economy has been on the recovery path. We assess the labor market two years into the COVID crisis. We show that early employment dynamics were almost entirely driven by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362041
pandemic recession. We first measure the contribution of temporary layoffs to unemployment dynamics over the period 1979 to the … due to "loss-of-recall", whereby workers in temporary-layoff unemployment lose their job permanently and do so at higher … both temporary-layoff and jobless unemployment. The model captures well pre-pandemic unemployment dynamics and shows how …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334353
Most economists maintain that the labor market in the United States is 'tight' because unemployment rates are low. They …, prior to that, real wages had been stagnant for some time. We show that unemployment is not key to understanding wage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361977
This paper accounts for the observed increase in unemployment duration relative to the unemployment rate in the U ….S. over the past thirty years, typified by the record low level of short-term unemployment. We show that part of the increase … remaining increase in unemployment duration relative to the unemployment rate is concentrated among women, whose unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470205
This paper investigates the relationship between macroeconomic conditions, alcohol use, and drinking problems using individual-level data from the 1987-1999 years of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We confirm the procyclical variation in overall drinking identified in previous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470207
unemployment-inflation tradeoff since 1995 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470298
Expanding on an approach suggested by Ashenfelter (1984), we extend the Phillips curve to an open economy and exploit panel data to estimate the textbook 'expectations augmented' Phillips curve with a market-based and observable measure of inflation expectations. We develop this measure using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471456
A search-theoretic general equilibrium model of frictional unemployment is shown to be consistent with some of the key … regularities of unemployment over the business cycle. In the model the return to a job moves stochastically. Agents can choose … unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472902
This paper investigates the precision of conventional and unconventional estimates of the natural rate of unemployment … series for unemployment and inflation, including additional supply shift variables in the Phillips curve, using monthly or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473382
Unemployment Insurance system to measure the effects of imperfect experience-rating on temporary layoffs and other types of … unemployment. We find a strong negative association between the degree of experience-rating and the rate of temporary layoff … unemployment, with the largest effect in recessionary years and the smallest effect in expansionary years. Increases in the degree …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474950