It is common in applied econometrics to test the null hypothesis of a level-stationary process against the alternative of a unit root process. We show that the use of conventional asymptotic critical values for the stationarity tests of Kwiatkowski et al. (1992) and Leybourne and McCabe (1994)...

Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore several new forecasting...

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role...