We perform simulations to assess the impact of a war between the US and Iran on global oil price behavior. To do so, we evaluate different levels of war intensity and oil price behavior from a multidimensional perspective. In this context, we simulate various scenarios using a simulator which is...

We perform simulations to assess the impact of a war between the US and Iran on global oil price behavior. To do so, we evaluate different levels of war intensity and oil price behavior from a multidimensional perspective. In this context, we simulate various scenarios using a simulator which is...

This paper introduces a new economic model of a wartime economy, the war economic capability model – WEC-Model. The WEC-Model assesses the economic impacts of countries thorough the possible scenario of war in three different stages: (i) initial conflict and diplomatic negotiations; (ii)...

This research work applies the terrorist attack vulnerability evaluation model (TAVEModel) to evaluate the effect of terrorism on the economic performance of Turkey. We examine both the short run and long-run economic impact of terrorist attacks in Turkey. The TAVE-Model applies a number of...

This paper introduces a new economic model to analyze the effects of a possible terrorist attack, namely the terrorist attack vulnerability evaluation model (TAVE-Model). The model analyzes three different phases of terrorism: (i) origins of a terrorist attack; (ii) terrorist attack itself; and...

The central objective of this paper is to empirically examine the issue of fiscal sustainability in developing Asia. To do so, we first diagnose the region's public finances by analyzing the evolution of key fiscal indicators over time and across subregions. We then estimate fiscal policy...

As the global crisis hit developing Asia, several countries instituted fiscal stimulus measures to create domestic demand. With the region returning to normal times, in this paper we draw lessons using historical data from 10 developing Asian countries to examine if countercyclical fiscal policy...

The substantial slowdown of economic growth since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 is rekindling debate on whether developing Asia should use fiscal expansion to boost aggregate demand. A key factor in the debate is the effectiveness of countercyclical fiscal policy in the region. The...

Developing Asia has weathered the global economic crisis well and is experiencing a rapid, robust V-shaped recovery. According to conventional wisdom, the fiscal stimulus packages put in place by the region's governments played a key role in the region's superior postcrisis performance. The...

As the global crisis hit developing Asia, several countries instituted fiscal stimulus measures to create domestic demand. With the region returning to normal times, in this paper we draw lessons using historical data from 10 developing Asian countries to examine if countercyclical fiscal policy...