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There is already a substantial literature documenting the fact that low yield currencies typically appreciate during times of global financial stress and behave as safe havens. The main objective of this paper is to find out what the fundamentals of safe haven currencies are. We analyse a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008901495
We present estimates of finance-adjusted output gaps which incorporate the information on the domestic and global credit cycles for a sample of emerging market economies (EMEs). Following recent BIS research, we use a state-space representation of an HP filter augmented with a measure of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637326
This paper identifies the various channels that give rise to a "sovereign-bank nexus" whereby the financial health of banks and sovereigns is intertwined. We find that banks and sovereigns are linked by three interacting channels: banks hold large amounts of sovereign debt; banks are protected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011901498
A striking and unexpected feature of the financial crisis has been the sharp appreciation of the US dollar against virtually all currencies globally. The paper finds that negative US-specific macroeconomic shocks during the crisis have triggered a significant strengthening of the US dollar,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003867020
Euro area governments have committed to break the doom loop between banks and sovereigns. But policymakers disagree on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012061145
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011618254
This paper investigates the link between sovereign ratings and macroeconomic fundamentals for a group of euro area … countries which recorded rating downgrades amid the euro area sovereign debt crisis. We apply an elaborated econometric … estimation technique, based on a Bayesian ordered probit model, to understand how the decisions of rating agencies can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637529
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010441239
We quantify the size of fiscal multipliers under financial fragmentation risk and demonstrate how non-standard monetary policy can support the macroeconomic transmission of fiscal interventions. We employ a DSGE model with financial frictions whereby the interplay of corporate, banks and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241104
This paper uses a unique dataset where credit rejections experienced by euro area firms are matched with firm and bank … the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis, and in credit developments characterising the post-crisis recovery … representation of euro area firms of small and medium size. Our findings suggest that, while firm balance sheet factors have been …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012150099