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We investigate whether the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks vary with the level of uncertainty. Using postwar US data and a Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) model, we find that fiscal spending has positive output effects in tranquil times but is contractionary during...
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1980. Over the period 1955-1979 an expansionary spending or revenue shock was associated with modestly higher stock prices …. After 1980, along with a decline in the fiscal multiplier, the response of stock prices to the same shock became negative …
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shock in the history of the United States. We take observed changes in fiscal policy during the war as inputs into a … fiscal shock"--Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis web site …
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standard neoclassical growth model with US data and assume that an exogenous shock has driven aggregate output far below steady … the generality of this result w.r.t. size and persistence of the shock, size of the government spending multiplier, and …
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