We propose a simple modification of the time series filter by Hamilton (2018b) that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8-quarter ahead forecasts errors of an autoregression. While this approach yields a cyclical component of...

The paper reviews adjustment dynamics in the EMU on the basis of estimated DSGE models for four large EA Member States (DE, FR, IT, ES). We compare the response of the four countries to identical shocks and find a particularly strong response of employment and wages in ES, a high sensitivity of...

Using a survey of Dutch households, we find that individuals who have experienced higher national unemployment rates over their lifetime save more and borrow less, after controlling for aggregate shocks, income, wealth, and demographics. These results are consistent with experience-based...

In Catalonia, between 2008 and 2014, the rate of youth unemployment has exponentially increased and it has turned into a structural problem: when the fourth quarter of 2014 ended, among the people under the age of 30, the number of unemployed people was 1,495,600, 645,000 more than in the first...

The degree of comovement of economic activity across states or regions is an issue of utmost importance to policymakers. Asymmetric business cycles are often seen as an impediment to the formation of a common currency area. However, it has been argued that a common monetary policy in itself...

The economic growth of the Baltic Region after independence has largely been realised through numerous reforms and capital market liberalisation. The Estonian economy in the past two decades was highly leveraged and characterised by the increase in real estate prices. This market had the pattern...

Unemployment in Europe has reached 10% as this was prepared, and it is over 10% in the United States at the same time. How has the service economy been related to the current global recession? That is the focus of this paper. Much has been written about the impact of the structural shift to...

The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were...