In this paper, a Bayesian version of the exponential smoothing method of forecasting is proposed. The approach is based on a state space model containing only a single source of error for each time interval. This model allows us to improve current practices surrounding exponential smoothing by...

A Kalman filter, suitable for application to a stationary or a non-stationary time series, is proposed. It works on time series with missing values. It can be used on seasonal time series where the associated state space model may not satisfy the traditional observability condition. A new...

The basic ideals underlying the Kalman filter are outlined in this paper without direct recourse to the complex formulae normally associated with this method. The novel feature of the paper is its reliance on a new algebraic system based on the first two moments of the multivariate normal...