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What drives financial crises in emerging markets?

Komulainen, Tuomas; Lukkarila, Johanna - EconWPA - 2003

The study examines the reasons for financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005126411

The Travails of Current Macroeconomic and Exchange Rate Management in China: The Complications of Switching to a New Growth Engine

Woo, Wing Thye - EconWPA - 2003

Just when China’s leaders receive conflicting signals of “overheating” and “below-potential growth”, they encounter … challenges have their roots in China’s inadequate marketization and continued discrimination against the domestic private sector … disaster in the long run because they would follow an increasingly rent-seeking path that is wasteful as in Japan (e …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062405

Impactos de un Shock Externo en un Modelo Estocástico de Equilibrio General para una Economía Abierta: El Caso de Chile

Ochoa, Marcelo; Valenzuela, Patricio - EconWPA - 2004

Este documento analiza el impacto de un shock en la tasa de interés externa en la economía chilena. Con este fin, se estima un modelo empírico de Vectores Autoregresivos y adicionalmente se desarrolla un modelo estocástico de equilibrio general calibrado y parametrizado para la economía...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561346

An Unobserved Components Model of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in a Small Open Economy

Vitek, Francis - EconWPA - 2005

This paper develops and estimates an unobserved components model for purposes of monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy. Cyclical components are modeled as a multivariate linear rational expectations model of the monetary transmission mechanism, while trend...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412638

Narrowing the US twin deficits: simulations with a world macroeconometric model

Bagnai, Alberto; Galli, Silvia; Pierucci, Eleonora; … - EconWPA - 2004

particular, on the Euro area and Japan). …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556489

Comparison between Asian, Russian and Turkish financial crises

Lukkarila, Johanna - EconWPA - 2004

Since the start of the 1990s, several countries have abandoned fixed- but-adjustable exchange rate regimes. The tendency towards floating exchange rate regimes, or alternatively monetary unions, has given rise to a debate on the disappearance of pure currency crises, and the literature has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556609

Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis

Normandin, Michel - EconWPA - 1996

This paper gauges the causal relationship between external and budget deficits by using Blanchard's overlapping generations model. This model sests the twin deficits hypothesis (i.e. there is a positive relationship between the deficits) and the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (i.e. there is no...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005561364

Productivity differentials and external balance in ERM II

Henriksson, Marketta - EconWPA - 2005

Differences in growth, productivity and inflation levels are going to be a prominent feature of the future of EMU, as the convergence process is still ongoing in the new Member States. This convergence process can be described by the Balassa-Samuelson proposition, which states that faster growth...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125509

Explaining the Real Exchange Rate during Sudden Stops and Tranquil Periods

Terada-hagiwara, Akiko - EconWPA - 2005

This paper untangles the causes behind real exchange rate devaluation events with particular attention paid to the Sudden Stop of capital flows. By utilizing cumulative impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, we argue that there is the asymmetric response across Sudden...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125513

International Capital Mobility: Evidence from Panel Data

Jansen, W. Jos - EconWPA - 2003

Krol (1996) reports estimates of the saving-investment correlation, based on panel regressions, that are much lower than commonly found in the literature. This note argues that this low estimate is not related to the panel estimation technique, as Krol claims, but largely to the inclusion of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125535

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