Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European...

The introduction of inflation targeting in 2006, together with important economic developments such as dedollarization, marked the beginning of a new macroeconomic framework in Armenia, which is likely to have changed the effectiveness of monetary policy. This paper is the first attempt to...

The issue of whether constraints should be placed on fiscal policies when moving to European monetary union is examined in the context of the use of fiscal policy for macroeconomic stabilization purposes. Examples of shocks hitting French and German economies are considered: an appreciation of...

This paper examines the impact of trade costs on real exchange rate volatility. We incorporate a multi-country Ricardian model of trade, based on the work of Eaton and Kortum (2002), into a macroeconomic model to show how bilateral real exchange rate volatility depends on relative technological...

This paper presents an overview of the different methodologies that can be used to measure the amount of available slack in an economy. A comparison of these alternatives reveals that the evolution of the Nairu is crucial for understanding recent cyclical developments in the French economy. A...

The export performance of the French economy relative to its own past and relative to a major trading partner, Germany, has deteriorated. The risk analysis indicates that French firms have seen a significant improvement in the corporate health, and seem resilient to the recent financial shock...

U.S. shocks explain a large part of French output common components. This paper analyzes the economic implications of two alternative welfare financing reforms: a reduction in payroll taxes funded by an increase in consumption taxes, and the other funded by a new levy on business value added....

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the recent French inflation behavior. The paper demonstrates that the recent change in French headline inflation behavior resulted from a few idiosyncratic, i.e., transient, factors. The paper describes the model setup and calibration of some crucial economic...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the performance of French banks and the financial support measures taken by the French government. France has a large and sophisticated financial system, which accounts for 10 percent of the global banking system and 5 percent of global capital markets. This...

This Selected Issues paper first explains the recent increase in trend growth and then discusses how labor market and tax policies could best sustain it. This study calculates French trend growth estimating simultaneously a Cobb–Douglas production technology and total factor productivity. The...