Showing 1 - 10 of 48
The sensitivity of secondary sovereign loan market returns to three classes of economic news is estimated in the arbitrage pricing theory framework. Returns are characterized by a limited response to unexpected changes in procyclical U.S. aggregates. Shocks to country-specific balance of payment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396212
This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400746
This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396173
This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396182
volatility creates risks to service provision, possibly entailing sudden tax changes, or even requiring new borrowing. After … fiscal savings (reserves), and the impact alternate policy choices could have on revenue volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400988
We study the impact of a minimum wage on business cycle volatility, depending upon its coverage and adjustment … affecting 20 percent of employees would amplify output volatility by 0.2 percent to 9.2 percent, and employment volatility by ?1 ….2 percent to 7.8 percent. A fixed wage or indexation to consumption price inflation increases volatility most. Indexation to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401464
The easing of controls on interest rates has led to higher interest rate volatility in India. Hence, there is a need to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404135
This paper examines the impact of trade costs on real exchange rate volatility. The channel is examined by constructing … higher trade costs result in a larger nontradable sector. This, in turn, leads to higher real exchange rate volatility. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404193
This study characterizes volatility dynamics in external emerging bond markets and examines how prices and volatility … markets are found to a¤ect both conditional returns and volatility, with the e¤ects on volatility being more pronounced and … volatility dynamics in external emerging bond markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404285
This paper reviews developments and issues in the exchange arrangements and currency convertibility of IMF members. Against the backdrop of continuing financial globalization and a series of emerging market crises since 1997, there have been important changes in the evolution of exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404579