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This paper analyzes the linkages between governance quality and country stress events. It focuses on two types of events: fiscal and political stress events, for which two innovative stress indicators are introduced. The results suggest that weaker governance quality is associated with a higher...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242318
A stochastic debt forecasting framework is presented where projected debt distributions reflect both the joint …-round effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic projections. The forecasting framework thus reflects the impact of the primary … balance on the forecast of macro aggregates. Previously-developed forecasting algorithms that do not incorporate these second …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009019604
This paper presents, for the first time, multi-dimensional indices of the quality of budget institutions in low-income countries. The indices allow for benchmarking against the performance of middle-income countries, across regions, and according to different institutional arrangements that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008470408
Fiscal decentralization is likely to entail a bias in the budget process toward higher public expenses and deficits. The paper reviews lessons drawn from the theoretical literature and international experience on the design of intergovernmental relations. The institutional setup should address...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599749
The political and security environment remains uncertain in Libya. Libya faces the challenges of stabilizing the economy and responding to the aspirations of the revolution. The near-term outlook is favorable, but there are significant risks. The overarching policy objective should be to foster...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011243172
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Czech economy, despite its strong fundamentals, is in the midst of a prolonged recession because of the euro area slump and weak domestic demand. A further slowdown in the euro area would exacerbate the situation, creating the risk of lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011243192
Program implementation has been satisfactory, and all assessment criteria were met. The fiscal deficit was reduced to 5.9 percent of GDP despite a significant revenue shortfall. Delays were incurred in the implementation of reforms in the energy sector. The authorities intend to accelerate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011243807
Greece adopted an ambitious program to eliminate fiscal and current account imbalances, regain competitiveness, maintain financial stability, and boost growth and employment. While significant fiscal adjustment occurred, critical objectives such as regaining confidence and restoring growth were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011244721
This paper presents an overview of recent U.S. fiscal developments and discusses possible implications of the sharp turn around in the government’s fiscal position. Against this back ground, it also reviews key policy challenges that will need to be addressed to cope with the mounting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005824863
Madagascar showed strong economic growth and low inflation under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) Arrangement. Executive Directors commended these developments, and stressed the need to restore fiscal discipline, improve governance, strengthen the business climate to encourage...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005824890