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We present an econometric method for estimating the parameters of a diffusion model from discretely sampled data. The estimator is transparent, adaptive, and inherits the asymptotic properties of the generally unattainable maximum likelihood estimator. We use this method to estimate a new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470313
We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of univariate homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonparametric models for conditional variances, using five bilateral weekly exchange rates for the dollar, 1973-1989. For a one week horizon, GARCH models tend to make slightly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474328
We implement a multifrequency volatility decomposition of three exchange rates and show that components with similar …) introduced in Calvet and Fisher (2001, 2004). Bivariate MSM is a stochastic volatility model with a closed-form likelihood …. Estimation can proceed by ML for state spaces of moderate size, and by simulated likelihood via a particle filter in high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467993
When estimates of variances are used to make asset allocation decisions, underestimates of population variances lead to lower expected utility than equivalent overestimates: a utility based criterion is asymmetric, unlike standard criteria such as mean squared error. To illustrate how to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474761
unconditional moments of asset returns, imply a lower bound on the volatility of the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution. We … short time series of consumption data undermines the ability of tests that use the restrictions implied by the volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474862
We consider using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors (MSPEs) to evaluate the null that a given series follows a zero mean martingale difference against the alternative that it is linearly predictable. Under the null of no predictability, the population MSPE of the null "no change"...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467602
Volatility has been one of the most active areas of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics during … categorizing the various volatility concepts, measurement procedures, and modeling procedures. We define three different volatility … concepts: (i) the notional volatility corresponding to the ex-post sample-path return variability over a fixed time interval …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469613
Recently there has been a great deal of interest in modeling volatility fluctuations. ARCH models, for example, provide … parsimonious approximations to volatility dynamics. Here we provide a selective amount of certain aspects of conditional volatility … estimation and testing. Finally, we discuss a variety of applications and extensions of the basic models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473891
It is widely known that conditional covariances of asset returns change over time. Researchers adopt many strategies to accommodate conditional heteroskedasticity. Among the most popular are: (a) chopping the data into short blocks of time and assuming homoskedasticity within the blocks, (b)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474103
a GARCH process for conditional volatility. Under such heteroskedasticity, OLS estimators or parameters in single …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474538