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The Geography of Job Creation and Job Destruction

Kuhn, Moritz; Manovskii, Iourii; Qiu, Xincheng - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

Spatial differences in labor market performance are large and highly persistent. Using data from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom, we document striking similarities in spatial differences in unemployment, vacancies, job finding, and job filling within each country. This robust...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660077

Business Cycles and Healthcare Employment

Aslim, Erkmen Giray; Chou, Shin-yi; De, Kuhelika - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

Is healthcare employment recession proof? We examine the hypothesis that healthcare employment is stable across the … employment responds to recessions, and show that this response depends largely on the type of the exogenous shock triggering the … recession. We find that healthcare employment responds procyclically to demand-induced recessions; and the reduction is driven …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938768

Do Double Majors Face Less Risk? : An Analysis of Human Capital Diversification

Hanks, Andrew S.; Jiang, Shengjun; Qian, Xuechao; Wang, Bo - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We study how human capital diversification, in the form of double majoring, affects the response of earnings to labor market shocks. Double majors experience substantial protection against earnings shocks, of 56%. This finding holds across different model specifications and data sets....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468295

Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle

Hobijn, Bart; Şahin, Ayşegül - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

.e., the participation cycle, which are important for the implementation of the maximum employment mandate. We show that these … pressures on employment from participation are two-thirds that of unemployment. Moreover, the participation cycle delays the … recovery in employment because it lags the unemployment cycle. It also amplifies the unevenness of the impact of recessions …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012629442

Currency Areas, Labor Markets, and Regional Cyclical Sensitivity

Russ, Katheryn Niles; Shambaugh, Jay C.; Singh, Sanjay R. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

In his papers during the lead up to the birth of the European Monetary Union, Obstfeld considered whether the countries forming the EMU were sufficiently similar to survive a single monetary policy--and more importantly, whether they had the capacity to adjust to asymmetric shocks given a single...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337753

Long Term Expectations and Aggregate Fluctuations

Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; La Porta, Rafael; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

In line with Keynes' intuition, volatility in the stock market and in real economic activity are linked by expectations of long term profits. We show that analysts' optimism about the long term earnings growth of S&P 500 firms is associated with a near term boom in major US financial markets,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337811

Recent Developments in Financial Risk and the Real Economy

Dew-Becker, Ian; Giglio, Stefano - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

This paper reviews recent developments in macro and finance on the relationship between financial risk and the real economy. We focus on three specific topics: the term structure of uncertainty, time variation - and specifically the long-term decline - in the variance risk premium, and time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014437009

Living Up to Expectations : Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance, and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis

Cole, Stephen J.; Martínez-García, Enrique; Sims, Eric R. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks have imperfect credibility. Exploiting unique survey-based measures of expected inflation, output growth, and interest rates, we estimate a small-scale New Keynesian model for the United States and other G7 countries...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014421202

The Household Equipment Revolution

Adamopoulou, Effrosyni; Greenwood, Jeremy; Guner, Nezih - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512107

Real-Time Real Economic Activity : Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession

Diebold, Francis X. - 2020

We study the real-time signals provided by the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index of Business conditions (ADS) for tracking economic activity at high frequency. We start with exit from the Great Recession, comparing the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs to a "final" late-vintage chronology. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481337