Showing 11 - 20 of 772
Consensus forecasts for the global economy over the medium and long term predict the world's economic gravity will … substantially shift towards Asia and especially towards the Asian Giants, China and India. While such forecasts may pan out, there …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458092
This paper addresses the puzzle of regime-dependent volatility in foreign exchange. We extend the literature in two … induce volatility under flexible rates because they have portfolio-balance effects on price, whereas under fixed rates the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470227
We investigate the relationship between financial integration and output volatility at micro and macro levels. Using a … regional level based on foreign ownership at the firm level. We find a positive effect of foreign ownership on volatility of … higher levels of financial integration and volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462751
Exchange rates depreciate by the difference between the domestic and foreign marginal utility growths. Exchange rates vary a lot , as much as 10% per year. However, equity premia imply that marginal utility growths vary much more, by at least 50% per year. This means that marginal utility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470316
A gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international … exchange rate volatility, even after controlling for a host of features, including the endogenous nature of the exchange rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471350
Current debates on globalization have tended to focus on financial market volatility and contagion. In fact, many … whether there has been volatility contagion from Mexico to the two South American nations. The results obtained from the … estimation of augmented GARCH equations indicate, quite strongly, that while there has been volatility contagion from Mexico to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472057
Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility at the daily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472795
The paper studies the effect of the market's perceived exchange rate volatility on bid-ask spreads. The anticipated … volatility is extracted from currency options data. An increase in the perceived volatility is found to widen bid-ask spreads … estimate of the effect of the volatility on the spreads. Although the spread-volatility relation implied by the option model of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474188
We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of univariate homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonparametric models for conditional variances, using five bilateral weekly exchange rates for the dollar, 1973-1989. For a one week horizon, GARCH models tend to make slightly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474328
We develop an empirical model of exchange rate returns, applied separately to samples of developed (DM) and developing (EM) economies' currencies against the dollar. Monetary policy stance of the global central banks, measured via a natural-language-based approach, has a large effect on exchange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479665