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Geographical and Sectoral Shocks in the U.S. Business Cycle
Ghosh, Atish; Wolf, Holger C. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 1997
We examine whether the aggregate U.S. business cycle is driven mainly by geographical" shocks (affecting all sectors within a state), or by sectoral shocks (affecting the same sector in all" states). We find that, at the level of an individual sector in an individual state growth are driven by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005829318
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What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles?
Miron, Jeffrey A; Beaulieu, J. Joseph - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 1995
This paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business cycle fluctuations. The fundamental reason is that in many instances identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about non-seasonal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005829624
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Government Purchases Over the Business Cycle: the Role of Economic and Political Inequality
Bachmann, Ruediger; Bai, Jinhui - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2010
This paper explores the implications of economic and political inequality for the business cycle comovement of government purchases. We set up and compute a heterogeneous-agent neoclassical growth model, where households value government purchases which are financed by income taxes. A key...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008611559
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Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data
Bachmann, Ruediger; Elstner, Steffen; Sims, Eric R. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2010
What is the impact of time-varying business uncertainty on economic activity? Using partly confidential business survey data from the U.S. and Germany in structural VARs, we find that positive innovations to business uncertainty lead to prolonged declines in economic activity. In contrast, their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008628459
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Public Consumption Over the Business Cycle
Bachmann, Ruediger; Bai, Jinhui - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011
What fraction of the business cycle volatility of government purchases is accounted for as endogenous reactions to overall macroeconomic conditions? We answer this question in the framework of a neoclassical representative household model where the provision of a public consumption good is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009223328
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What Drives Aggregate Investment?
Bachmann, Rüdiger; Zorn, Peter - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
Using firm-level survey data for the West German manufacturing sector, this paper revisits the technology-driven business cycle hypothesis for the case of aggregate investment. We construct a survey-based measure of technology shocks to gauge their contribution to short-run investment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010969200
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Some Reflections on the Recent Financial Crisis
Gorton, Gary - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2012
Economic growth involves metamorphosis of the financial system. Forms of banks and bank money change. These changes, if not addressed, leave the banking system vulnerable to crisis. There is no greater challenge in economics than to understand and prevent financial crises. The financial crisis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010950636
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Time-Varying Business Volatility, Price Setting, and the Real Effects of Monetary Policy
Bachmann, Ruediger; Born, Benjamin; Elstner, Steffen; … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2013
Does time-varying business volatility affect the price setting of firms and thus the transmission of monetary policy into the real economy? To address this question, we estimate from the firm-level micro data of the German IFO Business Climate Survey the impact of idiosyncratic volatility on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010821970
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The Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from the 2009 'Cash for Clunkers' Program
Mian, Atif; Sufi, Amir - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2010
A key rationale for fiscal stimulus is to boost consumption when aggregate demand is perceived to be inefficiently low. We examine the ability of the government to increase consumption by evaluating the impact of the 2009 "Cash for Clunkers" program on short and medium run auto purchases. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008565074
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The Old and the New in U.S. Economic Expansion of the 1990s
Zarnowitz, Victor - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2000
two previous long economic expansions, using 31 variables on real activity, inflation, productivity, wages, profits …. Inflation was decreasing or stable, a fact which is new for the post-World War II period (but not for the longer historical … interest rates reflected mostly reductions in inflation and the national debt. Profit margins increased strongly. Still, there …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005580406