In this paper a simple model for the evolution of the forward density of the future value of an asset is proposed. The model allows for a straightforward initial calibration to option prices and has dynamics that are consistent with empirical findings from option price data. The model is...

In this paper we study the asymptotic decay of finite time ruin probabilities for an insurance company that faces heavy-tailed claims, uses predictable investment strategies and makes investments in risky assets whose prices evolve according to quite general semimartingales. We show that the...