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The Yield Spread Puzzle and the Information Content of SPF Forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal - 2013
While the yield spread has long been recognized as a good predictor of recessions, it seems to have been largely overlooked by professional forecasters. We examine this puzzle, established by Rudebusch and Williams (2009), in a data-rich environment including not just the yield spread but many...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013090002
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Assessing the Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance of Boosting - Evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany
Buchen, Teresa - 2013
The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085278
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Price Formation on the EuroMTS Platform
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2013
This paper examines the process of price discovery in the MTS system, which builds on the parallel quoting of euro-denominated government securities on a number of (relatively large) domestic markets and on a (relatively small) European marketplace (EuroMTS). Using twenty-seven months of daily...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095113
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Assessing Forecast Uncertainties in a VECX Model for Switzerland : An Exercise in Forecast Combination Across Models and Observation Windows
Assenmacher, Katrin - 2009
We investigate the effect of forecast uncertainty in a cointegrating vector error correction model for Switzerland. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012766904
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Real-Time State-Space Method for Computing Smoothed Estimates for Future Revisions of U.S. Monthly Chained CPI
Zadrozny, Peter A. - 2016
Well known CPI of urban consumers is never revised. Recently initiated chained CPI is initially released every month (ICPI), for that month without delay within BLS and for the previous month with one month delay to the public. Final estimates of chained CPI (FCPI) are released every February...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989031
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Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators Under Test : A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production
Carstensen, Kai; Wohlrabe, Klaus; Ziegler, Christina - 2021
In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316171
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Model Averaging in Risk Management with an Application to Futures Markets
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Schleicher, Christoph; Zaffaroni, Paolo - 2021
This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty in the case of multi-asset volatility models and discusses the use of model averaging techniques as a way of dealing with the risk of inadvertently using false models in portfolio management. Evaluation of volatility models is then considered...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316571
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Optimality and Diversifiability of Mean Variance and Arbitrage Pricing Portfolios
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2009
This paper investigates the limit properties of mean-variance (mv) and arbitrage pricing (ap) trading strategies using a general dynamic factor model, as the number of assets diverge to infinity. It extends the results obtained in the literature for the exact pricing case to two other cases of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013153425
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An Empirical Growth Model for Major Oil Exporters
Esfahani, Hadi Salehi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2021
-run output equation with a coefficient equal to the share of capital (α). The long-run theory is tested using quarterly data on … results support the long-run theory. The existence of long-run relations between real output, foreign output and real oil … steadily over the past three decades, the theory suggests that the effect of oil income on the economy’s steady state growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315924
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Forecasting Nonlinear Aggregates and Aggregates with Time-varying Weights
Luetkepohl, Helmut - 2010
Despite the fact that many aggregates are nonlinear functions and the aggregation weights of many macroeconomic aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed, time-invariant aggregation weights. In this study a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144208