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This paper examines the relationship between US disposable personal income (DPI) and house price index (HPI) during the last twenty years applying fractional integration and long-range dependence techniques to monthly data from January 1991 to July 2010. The empirical findings indicate that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013094212
This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both … factor-augmented vector autoregression approach, improves forecasting performance for many variables, particularly at short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756285
forecasts based on exponential down-weighting critically depends on the choice of the weighting coefficient. The forecasting … techniques are applied to monthly inflation series of 21 OECD countries and it is found that average forecasting methods in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639
We develop a method for directly modeling cointegrated multivariate time series that are observed in mixed frequencies. We regard lower-frequency data as regularly (or irregularly) missing and treat them with higher-frequency data by adopting a state-space model. This utilizes the structure of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317180
We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the variance of the average, but rather the average of the variances of the individual forecasts that incorporate idiosyncratic risks. With a slight reformulation of the loss function...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017623
This paper exploits the homogeneity feature of the Singapore private residential condominium market and constructs matched home purchase price and rental price series using the repeated sales method. These matched series allow us to conduct time series analysis to examine the long-term present...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013011805
has considerable forecasting power for U.S. stock returns. In line with the theoretical mechanism, the correlation between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317587
. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012766904
probabilities with a simple GDP forecasting model yields an accurate nowcast for the steepest decline in GDP in 2009Q1 and a correct …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955198
Quarterly GDP figures usually are published with a delay of some weeks. A common way to generate GDP series of higher frequency, i.e. to nowcast GDP, is to use available indicators to calculate a single index by means of a common factor derived from a dynamic factor model (DFM). This paper deals...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059505