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The G7 business cycle in a globalized world
Carstensen, Kai; Salzmann, Leonard - 2016
, and inflation volatility, and in global macroeconomic indicators like the oil price, world stock market returns, and … exchange rate volatility. The results indicate that in a globalized world spillovers from emerging markets and industrial … countries other than the G7 play a relevant role for major aspects of the G7 and world business cycle. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011499802
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Measuring global real economic activity : do recent critiques hold up to scrutiny?
Kilian, Lutz - 2019
Hamilton (2018) suggests that the Kilian (2009) index of global real economic activity is misleading and calls for alternative measures. The problem documented by Hamilton is a consequence of a coding mistake. Specifically, the index of nominal freight rates underlying the Kilian index was...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011958840
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Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions
Baumeister, Christiane; Leiva-León, Danilo; Sims, Eric R. - 2021
In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584223
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Economic analysis and forecasting in the global economy and in emerging and developing regions including Africa : how informative is the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES)?
Garnitz, Johanna; Leibfritz, Willi - 2016
Economists around the world rely in addition to official statistics on business (and consumer) surveys, which are more … partly, be filled by the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES). In this paper we first describe this survey and also examine how …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011547810
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Beyond the business climate : regular and supplementary questions in the ifo Business survey
Demmelhuber, Katrin; Sauer, Stefan; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2022
In the monthly ifo Business Survey around 9,000 German companies answer questions about their current business situation, expectations and plans for the near future as well as on other business variables. This paper provides an overview of all regular questions (monthly, quarterly, bi-annually,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013170991
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The falling elasticity of global trade to economic activity : testing the demand channel
Auboin, Marc; Borino, Floriana - 2018
Since the recovery from the great financial crisis in 2010, global real trade flows grew much slower than pre-crisis, in both absolute terms (growth rates) and relative terms (relative to GDP, from 2:1 in the great 1990's to 1:1 since 2012) A debate has arisen as to whether this global trade...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900772
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The Ifo business cycle clock : circular correlation with the real GDP
Abberger, Klaus; Nierhaus, Wolfgang - 2010
The Ifo Business Climate is the most important indicator for the business cycle in Germany. In 1993 the connection …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008697108
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How strongly did the 2007/08 oil price hike contribute to the subsequent recession?
Carstensen, Kai; Elstner, Steffen; Paula, Georg - 2011
firm level analysis for which we exploit a unique microeconomic data set for Germany. Inspired by this finding, we … the aggregate level. In a counterfactual analysis we show that the 2007/08 oil price hike contributed notably to the … subsequent recession in Germany even though it was by far not the main driver. -- oil price shock ; VAR model ; micro data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009010510
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In search of leading indicators of economic activity in Germany
Bandholz, Harm; Funke, Michael - 2001
In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economicactivity in Germany estimated using a dynamic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011400394
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Estimating the output gap using business survey data : a bivariate structural time series model for the German economy
Flaig, Gebhard; Ploetscher, Claudia - 2000
This paper deals with the estimation of the output gap. We use uni- and bivariate unobserved components models in order to decompose the observed German GDP-series into trend, cycle and seasonal components. The results show that using the ifo business assessment variable as an indicator for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781503