Showing 1 - 10 of 2,238
The German economy is an important economic driver in the Euro-area in terms of gross domestic product, labour force and international integration. We provide a state of the art estimate of the German output gap between 1995 and 2022 and present a nowcasting scheme that accurately predicts the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013370512
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000886903
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001664578
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001365350
Since the influential paper of Stock and Watson (2002), the dynamic factor model (DFM) has been widely used for forecasting macroeconomic key variables such as GDP. However, the DFM has some weaknesses. For nowcasting, the dynamic factor model is modified by using the mixed data sampling...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011566828
is fundamentally uncertain which covariates are relevant. Thus cointegration is often analyzed in partial systems … significant cointegration outcome using a bootstrapped rank test (Cavaliere, Rahbek, and Taylor, 2012) in the bivariate sub … reject the null of no cointegration, but by simulation we find that they display very low power, such that the (bivariate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011843041
We propose a novel, multilaterally consistent productivity approach-based indicator to assess the international price competitiveness of 57 industrialized and emerging economies. It is designed to be a useful assessment tool for monetary policy authorities and, thereby, differs from previously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010373688
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000914863
We propose a novel time-varying parameters mixed-frequency dynamic factor model which is integrated into a dynamic model averaging framework for macroeconomic nowcasting. Our suggested model can efficiently deal with the nature of the real-time data flow as well as parameter uncertainty and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119825
We study whether the accuracy of real-time estimates of the output gap produced by the OECD has improved over time by examining a panel dataset on real-time output gap revisions for 15 countries from 1991 Q1 - 2005 Q4. We use a simple panel data regression and a state space model, with common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009559228