We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …

We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …

of the predictive densities. For illustrative purposes we apply it to combine White Noise and GARCH models to forecast …

We forecast the term structure of U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bond yields by analyzing a range of models that have been …