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The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy

Mohaddes, Kamiar - 2016

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998782

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

Cashin, Paul Anthony - 2012

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR-model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979-2011Q2, to discriminate - between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098275

Getting to Know GIMF : The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model

Anderson, Derek - 2014

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis and international economic research. Using a 5-region version of the GIMF, this paper illustrates the model's...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064363

China's Imports Slowdown : Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks

Kireyev, Alexei - 2016

The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China's imports as a result of China … shock, which are largely unaccounted for in the existing literature. Such effects include direct spillovers from China on … its trading partners, subsequent spillins among them, and spillbacks on China itself. The paper finds that the network …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012995279

The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets : Measures and Determinants

Sole Pagliari, Maria - 2017

Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue in two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 65 countries over the period 1970Q1-2016Q1, we construct three measures of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012957856

Estimating the Impact of External Shocks on the ECCU : Application to the COVID Shock

Parlak, Vivian; Salinas, Gonzalo; Vargas, Jose - 2022

We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic panel regression analysis we find significant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306756

External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies : How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion

Bussière, Matthieu - 2021

This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff scored well in predicting the 1998 crisis out-of-sample; (ii) all three crisis...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013212110

Terms-of-Trade Cycles and External Adjustment

Adler, Gustavo - 2017

We study the process of external adjustment to large terms-of-trade level shifts-identified with a Markov-switching approach-for a large set of countries during the period 1960-2015. We find that adjustment to these shocks is relatively fast. Current accounts experience, on average, a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960576

Managing Credit Bubbles

Martin, Alberto - 2014

We study a dynamic economy where credit is limited by insufficient collateral and, as a result, investment and output are too low. In this environment, changes in investor sentiment or market expectations can give rise to credit bubbles, that is, expansions in credit that are backed not by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050667

Sovereign Debt Markets in Turbulent Times : Creditor Discrimination and Crowding-Out

Broner, Fernando - 2014

In 2007, countries in the Euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits, and low spreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising their deficits and debt levels. By 2010,they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and, surprisingly,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059093

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